Campaign Update: A Momentum Swing to Trump? Maybe...
As I mentioned on Monday, it usually takes a week or more for voters to absorb major events and factor them into their thinking. Only then will any shift in attitudes begin to show up in real, reliable polling data. Today, 8 days after the verdict in the Soviet-style Manhattan show trial, that may be happening.
The first thing to look at is the betting odds on the race, since they’re probably a more accurate gauge of any shift in voter attitudes than polls with small samples and 3-5% margins of error tend to be. There is no margin of error on a money bet. Sorry.
As you can see in the photo atop this piece, Trump moved out to a 22% lead at the Polymarket odds site last night, which is significant movement from the 55-39% lead he held last Thursday.
Another striking aspect of this measure is how radically it has moved to Trump’s favor since April 15, the day the show trial began.