September Update From a DC Insider

[Mike McKenna is a long-time analyst/advisor/polling professional in Washington, DC. Also a former Trump staffer, he currently writes op/eds for the Washington Times, The Daily Caller and other publications. He sends out comprehensive state-of-play reports to a select email distribution, and allows me to share them with paid subscribers here.]

From: Michael McKenna

Date: September 25, 2023

Re: September 2023 Monthly Note

I apologize for being a bit late with this month’s note, but inexplicably I got distracted by actual work on behalf of customers. So, let’s get right to it.

Pause

I refuse to participate in the pointless speculation about how the voting on FY 2024 spending winds up, except to say that there does not seem to be any outcome which does not involve House Democrats providing essential votes for the final arrangement.

That, of course, means that we are heading towards a motion to vacate the chair with respect to the Speaker, which may be successful, despite the fact that there is no obvious successor.

With respect to the first shutdown (starting in about a week), the usual suspects are spending their time either waxing poetic about the rare and incredibly damaging nature of the partial and temporary pause of some marginal federal programs, or they are working their worry beads about the political consequences for the Republicans (who are always the party held responsible).

Pauses in some federal programs are by now a routine experience. Since passage of the misguided and disastrous Budget and Impoundment Act of 1974, parts of the federal government have shut down 20 times, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. That’s a shade less than one per Congress.

It is routine enough that it barely registers on the national consciousness, despite the loud and insistent drumbeat of the legacy media.