The Campaign Update: The DeSantis Political Moment Rises as Trump's Moment Fades

A new YouGov poll released over the weekend no doubt caused loud noises to emanate from the friendly confines of Mar-a-Lago:

That’s right: A plurality of “Republicans and Republican Leaners” now favors Ron DeSantis for the GOP’s 2024 presidential nomination over former President Donald J. Trump. Take it for what it’s worth, and to be precise, YouGov defines a “Republican leaner” as independents who tend to vote for Republican candidates more often than not.

Note that Trump still leads among self-described “strong Republicans,” and DeSantis leads bigly among those who lean toward the GOP but don’t identify themselves as Republicans in fact. What that result tells us is that Trump still owns the core of the GOP voter base, a fact that Mr. Trump and his core supporters will no doubt seize upon.

But here’s what it also tells us: Through his ridiculous, childish, dumb and absurd public behavior, Trump is steadily losing his ability to expand on that GOP base vote, the attribute that enabled him to bring a huge swath of blue-collar voters into the party to eke out wins in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016.

Another factor here is that the issue mix has now shifted. While immigration remains high on voters’ minds, they’re also now equally concerned about things like inflation, woke-ism, children being groomed in public schools and an array of other social issues that DeSantis, as a sitting major office-holder, has been able to capture with real action, as opposed to Trump’s only being able to pontificate about them during his rallies and on social media.