Trafalgar Pollster Says Republican Voters Being Systematically Under-Sampled in Polls

Readers here know I consider the Trafalgar group to be the most reliable polling group in the country. There is a good reason why: It’s because Trafalgar has a clear track record as the most accurate predictor of actual election outcomes over the last several election cycles. There is no mystery here.

Readers will also know that I’ve been warning everyone for months now that Republican voters were being consistently under-sampled in polls in this cycle, just as they have been in past cycles. There are several reasons for this:

• Conservatives are less likely to agree to be polled than liberals;

• Conservative voters are more likely to give false answers to pollsters when they do agree to be surveyed (I am a prime example of this);

• Pollsters, especially those working for university and media organizations, tend to be leftwingers and reflect their biases in the stratification of their samples;

• Many polls, particularly early in any cycle, are designed to be push polls trying to influence voters rather than legitimate gauges of voter attitudes.

Thus, we inevitably end up with polling that under-samples Republicans and overestimates Democrat turnout, and you end up with examples like one poll taken a week before Election Day 2020 projecting a Biden win in Wisconsin by 18 points.

Given all of this, it should surprise no one that my eyes perked up at a piece at DailyWire today, in which Trafalgar Group pollster Robert Cahaly basically confirms everything I’ve been writing here.

Here’s an excerpt from that story, titled “Trafalar Pollster Signals Republican Voters Will Be Undercounted Ahead of Midterms”:

Robert Cahaly, founder and senior strategist and pollster of Trafalgar group, observed during the debut of Election Wire, a new weekly podcast from The Daily Wire scheduled to air every Sunday leading up to the elections next month, that with the upcoming election around the corner many Republican voters would be underestimated after legacy media talking heads and establishment politicians declared MAGA republicans “enemies of the state.”

“These submerged voters aren’t answering polls, they aren’t putting stickers on their cars, or signs in their yard — they’re not even posting on social media,” Cahaly said. “They are underwater. They’re not saying a word to anybody until election day.”

Cahaly said voters shouldn’t trust polls in the coming weeks, considering many pollsters failed to accurately predict the last three elections by highly favoring Democrats and undercounting Republicans.

“Polls have two purposes,” he said. “They’re either to reflect the electorate, or they’re to affect the electorate — and too many of these media and university-based polls are designed to affect the electorate and are trying to create a false narrative quite often when there’s not one.”

With American skepticism of polling continually increasing due to false narratives forged by the pollsters, Cahaly said such groups have already begun to face the possibility of getting the next election cycle completely wrong again.

“And so now they’re having to get back to reality because they don’t mind at all being wrong, but they hate it when somebody is right,” he said.

[End]

Oh.

So, hey, you don’t have to believe me about any of this: Just believe the most accurate polling group in the country.

Cheer up.

That is all.