[Mike McKenna is a long-time analyst/advisor/polling professional in Washington, DC. Also a former Trump staffer, he currently writes op/eds for the Washington Times. He sends out comprehensive state-of-play reports to a select email distribution, and allows me to share them with paid subscribers here. This is his report for March.]
From: Michael McKenna
Date: May 15, 2023
Re: May 2023 Monthly note
Debt Limit
Everyone seems to care about the debt limit and how that story will conclude, so let’s start with that. If the deal is struck right after I get this out, please adjust the verb tenses accordingly.
As this goes to press, the House Republicans are still the only ones who have written down and passed legislation that increases the debt limit. That means that their approach is framing the conversation, and it has been since they passed that legislation.
Consequently, the final deal will reflect the framework in the House legislation – some clawback of unspent funds, a rebaselining of the budget (perhaps to FY2022 levels, perhaps not), and then some sort of cap (1% a year? 2% a year?) in the nominal growth of federal spending (both defense and non-defense). Anticipate a short string; the limit will be raised just enough to ensure that we will back here in 18-24 months.
Among other things, that means that the 2024 election will be, at least in part, a contest over federal spending, and the results of the election will be dispositive both to the debt limit and President Trump’s tax legislation (the TCJA).
The only questions that remain open as this is written is what are the duration and configuration of the spending caps and what is the runway on the debt limit. In short, there’s a deal out there, and it’s not a particularly complicated one. But it could take anywhere from 10 minutes to ten days to put a bow on it.