Washington Update From the U.S. Oil and Gas Association - 6.6.2024
Little Rebellion Now and Then Is A Good Thing
June 6, 2024
Halfway from Kyoto to 2050 and carbon dioxide emissions are increasing, not decreasing
We are now halfway between the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and the goal of many nations to achieve net zero in 2050. Vaclav Smil, arguably the world’s foremost energy scholar, has written a paper for the Fraiser Institute in Canada and has found that “zero carbon is a highly unlikely outcome”. And lest you think that Smil is in our pocket which he isn’t, Bill Gates calls Smil “one of my favorite authors.”
The biggest takeaway from Smil’s paper is that the world is going the wrong way in terms of global carbon dioxide emissions. Smil explains:
Despite international agreements, government spending and regulations, and technological advancements, global fossil fuel consumption surged by 55 percent between 1997 and 2023. And the share of fossil fuels in global energy consumption has only decreased from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to approximately 82 percent in 2022.
Here are some more points from the Executive Summary of Smil’s paper:
The first global energy transition, from traditional biomass fuels such as wood and charcoal to fossil fuels, started more than two centuries ago and unfolded gradually. That transition remains incomplete, as billions of people still rely on traditional biomass energies for cooking and heating.
Converting energy-intensive processes (e.g., iron smelting, cement, and plastics) to non-fossil alternatives requires solutions not yet available for large-scale use.
The energy transition imposes unprecedented demands for minerals including copper and lithium, which require substantial time to locate and develop mines.
To achieve net-zero carbon, affluent countries will incur costs of at least 20 percent of their annual GDP.