The Price Signal Is Screaming… and Nobody’s Listening
I ordered a venti black coffee at Starbucks today. No room, like I’ve done for more than 20 years. I don’t even want to imagine how much I’ve spent on coffee over the years. But it used to be $2.19. Now it’s $3.51 and the tip screen asks if I’d like to donate $1, $2, or $5… for pouring hot water over beans.
It’s not inflation. It’s a tax on autopilot. It’s corporate America realizing: “You’ll keep paying this because you stopped thinking a long time ago.” I don’t buy into the “greedy corporations are responsible for inflation” narrative but I do believe that they don’t drop prices when inputs fall… business is too good.
And honestly? They’re right. We have responded to price signals the same way we respond to a car alarm in a parking lot—annoyed but totally numb.
College: The $320,000 Mistake We Still Support
Inflation at Starbucks is annoying. Inflation in college is insane. Parents will drive across town to save $0.08 on gas and then send their kid to Boston University for $80,000 a year because: “That’s just what you do after high school.”
We treat college like a brand we’ve been loyal to since 1983. Not like a product with a price tag that has gone absolutely off the rails. The price signal is screaming: “STOP PAYING THIS!” American parents are whispering back: “But we’ve always paid this.”
The Kids Who Ignore Their Parents Will Win
My son called to tell me he’s thinking about the military after completing his heavily scholarship subsidized undergraduate degree. Budget analysis, intelligence, maybe law school or an MBA afterward—paid for (with my tax dollars…something I strongly support). That’s his rational response to stupid pricing for MBA’s and a job market for his peers that looks really tough. Something like 10% of 20-24 year old college grads are unemployed right now.
Things other than the military look good, too. Trade school. Buying or building a renovation businesses. I really like rolling up mom-and-pop plumbing companies when 65-year-olds retire. The real wealth of the next generation isn’t in apps—it’s in construction, skilled labor, home renovation, and small-business roll-ups. I don’t think it’s in writing Python so AI can automate Python.
We Have a Workforce with No Exit
Old rule: young people replace old people.
New rule: no one has enough savings to leave, so they won’t.
40% of Americans can’t cover a $400 emergency. So guess what they’re not doing at 65? “Retiring.” They’re going to stay in jobs for half their salary, stay in the workforce forever, and block out new grads who took on $250k of debt for careers that don’t exist.
The price signal is loud: “Stop sending kids into white-collar traffic jams with a loan that will drag them down forever.” The average first time home buyer is now 40. That’s student debt. Car loans. And credit cards.
The Workforce is Evolving at Lightning Speed.
I had a job interview at DOGE last year. I really wanted to move to Washington and I would have happily paused law school. The interviewer and department head was 28. I looked him up. He had just sold a company for $100M. He asked if I could code. I said not really. Interview lasted three minutes.
He didn’t reject my knowledge or work ethic. The market rejected my skillset. It’s tired. That’s not pain, it’s a price signal.
At the core, AI isn’t eliminating opportunity. I think it’s eliminating the fantasy that opportunity is evenly distributed, the way college brochures pretend it is. Michael Dell built computers in his dormitory. Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg dropped out of college.
The next generation doesn’t need us to tell them to “follow their passion.” They need us to teach them to follow the signal.
Here’s the Real Inflation Problem
Inflation isn’t the enemy. Denial is.
Prices are telling us to stop buying $80k degrees. The only thing missing is the courage to change behavior because of it. Most people would rather complain about the $3.51 coffee… and then buy it anyway.